KBB: October New-Car Sales Expected to Jump 11.7 Percent

With one additional selling day, October sales are on track to reach 1.22 million units, KBB reported last week. And barring any economic setbacks, the vehicle information site expects sales to reach 15.6 million units this year.

by Staff

October 24, 2013

3 min to read

IRVINE, Calif. — New-vehicle sales are expected to improve 11.7 percent in October to a total of 1.22 million units, according to data from Kelley Blue Book.

The company predicts that following the first year-over-year decline in 27 months in September, new-car sales should begin to bounce back in October. This October has one more selling day than last year, and in 2012, numbers were heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy’s impact on the East Coast. Barring another economic setback, industry sales remain on track to reach about 15.6 million units in 2013.

In October, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1.22 million units, up 11.7 percent from last year and up 7.4 percent from September 2013, KBB predicts. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2013 is estimated to be 15.4 million, up from 14.3 million in October 2012 and up from 15.2 million in September 2013. Retail sales are expected to account for 84 percent of sales in October 2013.

Toyota is poised to post the greatest sales growth from last year at 15.9 percent. Ford also is expected to report excellent sales results this month, driven largely by the demand for their F-Series as well as the recently redesigned Fusion and Escape. Chrysler, Honda and Nissan also are expected to post double-digit gains, largely on the heels of new redesigns and introductions such as the Jeep Cherokee, Honda Accord and Nissan Altima.

“The government shutdown didn’t impact consumers growing appetite for buying new vehicles,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “The expectations were that car buyers would wait on the sidelines, but because of pent-up demand and credit availability, car sales are expected to increase 7 percent from last month.”

Continuing its trend, sales of compact crossovers will have the biggest improvement in October, with an expected gain of more than 25 percent.

Although General Motors has its new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra on the market, the impact of a recent $1,500 manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) increase on these trucks remains to be seen. Although the growth in the pickup truck sales appears to be slowing on the surface, sales were already beginning to heat up in the fourth quarter of 2012, so year-over-year comparisons will naturally subside as time goes on.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share ²
Manufacturer	Oct-13	Oct-12	YOY %	Oct-13	Oct-12	YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	212,000	195,764	8.3%	17.4%	17.9%	-0.5%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)	191,000	167,947	13.7%	15.7%	15.4%	0.3%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	180,000	155,242	15.9%	14.8%	14.2%	0.5%
Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, RAM)	142,000	126,185	12.5%	11.6%	11.6%	0.1%
American Honda (Acura, Honda)	120,000	106,973	12.2%	9.8%	9.8%	0.0%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)	90,000	79,685	12.9%	7.4%	7.3%	0.1%
Hyundai-Kia	95,000	92,723	2.5%	7.8%	8.5%	-0.7%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen)	48,000	46,019	4.3%	3.9%	4.2%	-0.3%
Total ³	1,220,000	1,092,294	11.7%	-	-	-
¹Historical data from OEM sales announcements
² Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
³ Includes brands not shown

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share
Segment	Oct-13	Oct-12	YOY %	Oct-13	Oct-12	YOY %
Mid-Size Car	189,000	171,085	10.5%	15.5%	15.7%	-0.2%
Compact Car	178,000	157,214	13.2%	14.6%	14.4%	0.2%
Compact Crossover	150,000	118,603	26.5%	12.3%	10.9%	1.4%
Full-Size Pickup Truck	166,000	147,199	12.8%	13.6%	13.5%	0.1%
Subcompact Car	54,000	47,107	14.6%	4.4%	4.3%	0.1%
Total ²	1,220,000	1,092,294	11.7%	-	-	-
¹ Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
² Includes segments not shown