Bloomberg forecasts global electric-vehicle sales, including plug-in hybrids but 70% fully electric, to jump 21% this year to 16.7 million, taking a 20% share of all vehicle deliveries, 14% of that purely electric.
It said that despite legacy automakers pulling back on EV production from earlier ambitious targets, all-EV producers are expanding production and will capture a growing share of the worldwide market.
China will continue to be a big player, selling nearly six in 10 EVs, though Bloomberg expects its growth to slow “due to market saturation in the wealthier regions and tougher economic conditions overall.”
It acknowledged that the U.S. market “is the toughest to call” due to some legacy brands saying EV demand is flagging while EV market leader Tesla continues to have success and other traditional automakers forge ahead.
Bloomberg predicts that U.S. EV sales will nevertheless grow to 13% of new-vehicle sales to nearly 1.9 million units, though it says politics could complicate the growth, particularly political polarization’s affect on public dialogue and news coverage of EVs.
The report calls out China-based BYD as a brand to watch, saying it has the “right portfolio” of affordable EVs for emerging markets. Legacy automakers’ EV options skew toward expensive models, and high prices have been one of the top reasons American consumers give for sticking with gas-powered models.
